In August, the fundamentals of PVC improved slightly, the supply side reduced production significantly, demand did not change much from the previous month, the net export volume continued to decline, and the gap between supply and demand decreased. Both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in September, but the increase is not large, the net export volume will continue to decline, and the difference between supply and demand is expected to change little.
In August, the performance of PVC supply and demand improved slightly. The supply side decreased significantly month-on-month production, and demand continued to be weak, but it also increased slightly month-on-month. Export expectations continued to decline, import volume remained low, and net export volume continued to decline. A decrease of about 25,000 tons.
In September, the supply and demand sides of PVC demand are expected to increase slightly, so what is the expected change in the supply and demand gap?
Supply-side maintenance may decrease slightly, and operating load rate may increase slightly
In August, on the one hand, due to severe losses, and on the other hand, sudden failures, high temperatures, etc. increased significantly, the operating load rate dropped a lot. Entering September, the loss factor of the enterprise will continue, but the sudden factor has decreased, and some devices are gradually recovering. It is expected that the maintenance loss will decrease slightly, but the increase in the load rate is not expected to be large. According to the calculation of Zhuochuang Information, the maintenance loss in September is expected to be around 280,000 tons, which is slightly lower than the maintenance loss of 338,500 tons in August. The operating load rate for the month was around 74.5%, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points from August.
Export Arbitrage Window Closes Net Exports Decrease
Since June, the demand for external markets has weakened, the decline in international prices has accelerated, the domestic export arbitrage window has basically been closed, and the number of export orders has decreased significantly. It is expected that the export volume will gradually decline from August to September. The import arbitrage window has not been significantly opened, and imports will still be mainly processed with imported materials, and the arrival volume of a few general trades may increase slightly. Overall, it is expected to maintain net exports in August-September, but net exports are expected to gradually decline from 150,000 tons in July to below 100,000 tons.
We have done chemical products for over 30years. Our main products include PVC Resin, CPE, TIO2, Pe Wax, Paraffin Wax, Stabilizer, Stearic Acid ETC.
